Submission
1. Scope, Nature and Elements of a Shared Vision for Long-term Cooperative Action (i) Context AOSIS is of the view that in order to address the serious challenges of climate change all countries must work together to ensure that the negative impacts resulting from the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere do not adversely effect the developmental aspirations and survival of any country, especially the most vulnerable among us, particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). AOSIS believes that a decision on a long term global goal for emission reductions must be one of the central elements in a shared vision and that this goal must be guided by the ultimate objective of the Convention. Hence global efforts must be ambitious, must reflect the urgency of our collective endeavours and must be consistent with a mitigation pathway that safeguards the most vulnerable countries from the adverse impacts of climate change. The shared vision for long-term cooperative action under the Convention should accelerate actions to address the adverse impacts of climate change that are now occurring and will increase without aggressive intervention. The Shared Vision must provide a framework for actions commencing now and continuing into the future. It must be guided by the urgency of action, bearing in mind that many countries are already experiencing dangerous impacts and that globally we must avoid rapid, abrupt, catastrophic impacts. This accelerated effort must: a) Demonstrate leadership by the global community in modifying longer term trends in emissions; b) Fulfill the requirements of the Bali Action Plan, including enabling action now; c) Speed up efforts to mitigate climate change; d) Reduce the rate of climate change and therefore create an opportunity for threatened communities and ecosystems to adapt to climate change; e) Build experience and confidence in the UNFCCC process; Action commencing now provides a practical way of linking efforts on environmentally sound mitigation and adaptation. Early action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions achieves mitigation goals as well as reduces the future costs of adaptation to climate change. AOSIS notes that for SIDS, the negative impacts of climate change are already occurring. AOSIS also recognizes the urgent social, economic and survival threats caused by the adverse impacts of climate change and sea level rise to our sustainable development, territorial integrity and continued existence as viable dynamic communities. These factors are important and should guide the development of a Shared Vision. AOSIS countries have limited capacities to respond to the challenges resulting from climate change, and require special efforts to access opportunities to build capacities in a timely manner, as part of the longterm cooperative action under the Convention. Such action will be aimed at ensuring: a) That all countries take action in mitigating GHG emissions in line with the longterm goal for the stabilization of temperature increases and the GHG concentrations; b) That all countries especially the most vulnerable, in particular SIDS and LDCs, are able to adapt in a timely manner to the adverse effects of climate change that are already being experienced, and the impacts that will occur in the future; c) That all countries collaborate in the development, diffusion and transfer of environmentally sound technologies, including technologies for adaptation and mitigation; d) Adequate and appropriate access to environmentally sound technologies, including technologies for adaptation and mitigation, in particular to SIDS and LDCs; e) Availability of new and sufficient financial resources separate from the current ODA commitments to vulnerable countries, especially the SIDS and LDCs, to assist them in building their capacities, implementing adequate adaptation measures and accessing appropriate technology to respond to the challenge of climate change. (ii) Scientific Basis The long-term target should be informed by the best available scientific assessment and the precautionary principle. In this context, minimizing further negative impacts of climate change on SIDS must be one of the key benchmarks for assessing the adequacies of this long-term goal. It must be noted that even at ranges suggested by IPCC-AR4 and other relevant sources all AOSIS countries will be challenged to survive and provide a livelihood for their population. The stabilization level must therefore be ambitious and respect the sovereignty and rights to survival of all countries. (iii) Nature of the shared vision for Long Term Cooperative Action A Vision Statement describes where one wants to go, the destination to be arrived at and the goals that one wishes to achieve. The Shared Vision should therefore be aspirational in nature consisting of an ambitious, concrete and measurable long-term target, and a framework for immediate and future action to implement the four pillars of the Bali Action Plan. (iv) Scope of shared vision The Shared Vision should be aimed at achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2. It should provide a basis for enabling the most vulnerable countries, in particular SIDS, and LDC’s, to pursue actions with support from the global community that help to ensure their survival and the achievement of the sustainable development aspirations of present and future generations. (v) Principles This Shared Vision for LCA including a long term global goal for emission reductions must be based on best available scientific information that uses impacts on SIDS as a benchmark for effectiveness and its appropriateness, consistent with articles 3.2 and 3.3 of the Convention. Additionally, the Shared Vision should be guided by Articles 3 and 4 of the Convention, as well as the following: a) Actions taken under the Convention must be urgent, practical, ambitious, and designed to protect the most vulnerable Parties, and to ensure their survival and sustainable development both in the short and in the long term. b) The polluter-pays principle and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities must be used to determine the obligation of different Parties and Groups of Parties. c) Parties should use the precautionary principle in their efforts to anticipate, prevent the causes of and minimize the further adverse impacts of climate change. d) Actions should also reflect the principle of state responsibility - that States have the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of their national jurisdiction (Principle 2 of the Rio Declaration). e) Actions should reflect the principle of inter-generational equity – the need to protect the global climate for both present and future generations. (vi) Cooperative Action on Mitigation • Actions on mitigation must be aggressive and result in deep cuts in global GHG emissions to allow global emissions to peak by 2015 and reduce thereafter. • Mitigation efforts by all countries should be based on the most recent scientific information and the imperative to reduce emissions rapidly to limit the impact on Small Island Developing States and other highly vulnerable countries. Critical physical, environmental, social and economic thresholds exist for many SIDS and LDC’s. Actions under the Convention must aim to ensure that these thresholds are not further breached by the impacts of climate change. • Developed country Parties should take the lead on addressing climate change, specifically in their commitment to reduce GHG emissions based on the principle of historical responsibility. • Renewable energy and energy efficiency policies and measures should form the central pillars of the Convention’s future climate mitigation strategy. Expanding access to renewable energy and energy efficient technologies should be the key strategy for engaging developing countries in mitigation efforts. • For developed country Parties economic instruments to address demand side management will be essential in achieving substantial emission reductions. These include taxes on carbon intensive activities, eco-labelling, appliance standards, fuel efficiency standards, the removal of subsidies for fossil fuels and the creation of incentives for the uptake of renewable energy and for the implementation of energy efficient measures. • All developing countries should take concerted action to reduce their emissions as part of the Bali Action Plan package. Major emitting developing countries should make a significant contribution to reducing their emissions significantly deviating from their current emissions baselines, supported through technological and financial incentives in particular by developed countries consistent with their commitments under the Convention. • Technologies that increase dependency of carbon intensive fuel sources should be discouraged. Technologies that generate additional or new environmental and health risk challenges for the international community, such as nuclear power, should not be included in the energy mix. (vii) Enhanced Action on Adaptation • Action on adaptation should respond to the impacts that are already occurring and be sufficient to address the impacts that are expected to occur in the future. This action should be achieved through a structured but flexible approach to adaptation that provides for: i. institutional arrangements under the Convention process that co-ordinates adaptation efforts at the international and regional levels to support country driven priorities; ii. new, additional and predictable financial resources separate and apart from ODA that are supported by appropriate institutional mechanisms; iii. national-level adaptation planning and implementation mechanisms, building on existing processes and methodologies where available and appropriate, e.g. national reports including National Communications or NAPAs as appropriate; iv. a multi-window mechanism to address loss and damage from climate change impacts, with insurance, rehabilitation/compensatory, and risk management components. v. enhance existing financial assistance for recovery from extreme events • Enhanced capacity at all levels in the most vulnerable countries, in particular LDCs and SIDS, will be required as an integral part of this enhanced action on adaptation. • The priority actions under adaptation should be targeted to the needs of the most vulnerable countries and communities, in particular the LDCs and SIDS. • Knowledge sharing and transfers of adaptation technologies are critical for enhanced action on adaptation. • The UNFCCC must play the key role in enhancing adaptation and demonstrate greater leadership on mobilizing adaptation action both in the short and long term. (viii) Enhanced Action on Technology On a shared vision on enhancing technology, AOSIS is of the view that:- • Technology development, transfer, diffusion and deployment must play a critical role in global efforts to adapt to, and mitigate against, climate change. • The immediate and urgent delivery of technology development, deployment, diffusion and transfer to developing countries requires suitable responses, including a continued emphasis by all Parties, in particular Parties included in Annex 1 to the Convention, on enhancement of enabling environments, facilitating access to technology information and capacity-building, identification of technology needs and innovative financing that mobilises resources of the private sector to supplement public finance sources where appropriate. • Adequate financial resources must be made available to facilitate the transfer of technologies for mitigation and adaptation to developing countries. Such financing should be made available to defray and/or pay for the cost of Intellectual Property Rights or pay for alternative access regimes. • The rapid diffusion of energy efficient technologies and renewable energy technologies is essential for reducing emissions while contributing to sustainable development. • Energy efficiency targets and renewable energy targets can form a useful mechanism for assessing progress. National renewable energy targets, accompanied by concessionary financing from the international community to assist in achieving these targets, can be helpful in addressing both climate change and sustainable development. • Mitigation technologies that increase dependence on carbon intensive fuel sources should be discouraged. Technologies that generate hazards to human health, the environment or both should not be included in the energy mix. • Adaptation technologies must be given the same prominence as mitigation technologies. SIDS and low-lying developing States are already experiencing the adverse effects of global climate change, and adaptation technologies applicable to SIDS and low-lying developing States are required now. • The private sector must be encouraged to play a role in the development and transfer of adaptation technologies • Indigenous technologies have a significant role to play and their documentation and dissemination should be encouraged (ix) Enhanced Action on Finance & Investment Enhanced action on the provision of finance to support adaptation should be guided by the following: • New and additional – A significant injection of new money is required separate from traditional ODA and the 0.7% target, specifically devoted to adaptation and commensurate with projected adaptation needs. • Predictability – The sources of this new financing must be stable and predictable including from mandatory or assessed contributions from developed countries and levies on the carbon markets and other emissions trading schemes. • Grant-based – Consistent with the polluter-pays-principle financing to developing countries for adaptation should be in the form of grants rather than loans. SIDS are being forced to adapt to the adverse impacts of a phenomenon caused by the carbon intensive lifestyles and production patterns of others. • Priority and simplified access for the most vulnerable – Particularly vulnerable developing countries especially the SIDS and LDCs should be given priority access to any financing for adaptation given their unique vulnerability, limited capacity to adapt and negligible contribution to climate change. • A New Approach to the Governance of funds – new financing should be channeled through the Convention and new funding arrangements for addressing climate change shall be under the guidance and supreme authority of Parties to the Convention. The governance arrangements of the international financial institutions should not disadvantage SIDS and LDCs nor create burdensome conditionalities such as cofinancing. • Coherence – Coherence and coordination at the international level among all actors and utilizing the Convention as the fulcrum for action. (x) Principles for Contribution by Different Groups of Countries 1. All Parties will be required to take action in keeping with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. 2. Developed country Parties, given their historical responsibility, should take the lead in actions to reduce GHG emissions, the provision of funding, and on activities related to technology transfer for adaptation and mitigation. 3. Developing countries will also need to take action to reduce their emissions trajectories, with assistance from developed country Parties, in line with their cumulative emissions, mitigation potential and opportunities, bearing in mind national circumstances and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. These countries should be prepared to pursue a clean development path now up to and beyond 2012 through measurable and verifiable actions that result in the significant deviation of emissions growth from business-as-usual scenarios. 4. Consistent with Article 3, all Parties are urged to integrate the management of climate risks into their national development programs. 2. Long Term Global Goal for Emission Reductions I. Need for a long term goal The avoidance of climate change impacts on SIDS must be one of the key benchmarks for assessing the appropriateness of any long-term goal. The long term global goal must be sufficient to ensure that long-term temperature increases are stabilized well below 1.5o C. A 2ºC increase compared to pre-industrial levels would have devastating consequences on SIDS due to resulting sea level rise, coral bleaching, coastal erosion, changing precipitation patterns, increased incidence and re-emergence of climate related diseases and the impacts of increasingly frequent and severe weather events. II. Context of a long term global goal Critical physical, environmental, social and economic thresholds exist for many SIDS and other particularly vulnerable countries and groups. The shared vision must aim to ensure that these thresholds are not breached. The best available scientific evidence also indicates that greenhouse gas emissions are increasing at an unprecedented rate, including in many Annex I Parties. All Parties must be committed to reaching the target by addressing emissions from sources and removals by sinks. All Parties should also promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion of technologies, practices, processes and processes that control greenhouse gas emissions. III. Nature of and principles for a long term global goal Now is the time for concrete action, which must take two forms: a) Deep and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by major emitters within the next 10 – 15 years in keeping with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities, with appropriate financial and technical support to developing countries that take on reduction targets; and b) Provision of assistance and support to vulnerable countries, in particular SIDS and LDCs, to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The long-term target should be informed by the best available scientific assessment and the precautionary principle. In this context, minimizing further negative impacts of climate change on SIDS must be one of the key benchmarks for assessing the adequacies of this long-term goal. It must be noted that even at ranges suggested by IPCC-AR4, all AOSIS countries will be challenged to survive and provide a livelihood for their population. The stabilization level must therefore be ambitious and respect the sovereignty and rights to survival of all countries.
IV. Level of stabilization or temperature increase AOSIS therefore sees the long-term target as a stabilization of GHG gas concentrations well below 350 ppm CO2e and temperature increases limited to below 1.5o C above the pre-industrial level, in order to limit sea level rise to levels that that minimize adverse effects consistent with the principles above. Only emission pathways towards the lower end of the emission reduction identified in the lowest stabilization level reviewed in the IPCC-AR4 would begin to reduce GHG concentrations and ultimately, warming, consistent with these objectives. There are emissions pathways described by available studies that show support for this level of stabilization or temperature increase1 . V. Peaking time of global emissions There is a small window of opportunity for preventing runaway climate change. In order to reach the preferred AOSIS stabilization global CO2 emissions must peak by 2015 and decline thereafter. VI. Quantification of a long term goal This stabilization level requires global CO2 emissions to reduce by more than 85% by 2050. The cost of such action is readily manageable. The 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC has estimated that the cost of stabilization at the lowest emissions pathways analyzed (2.0-2.4) was – 0.12% of global GDP per year in the context of average growth of 3%. The low emissions pathways referred to above estimate the costs in the range of 1.0% - 1.7% of GDP by 2100. The Stern review of the economics of climate change has put the cost of inaction as being much higher than these estimates. VII. Contribution by different groups of countries To achieve this shared vision requires a legally-binding commitment to take appropriate national and international actions be taken to realize the above target by all Parties led by Annex I Parties. These actions should be consistent with the Convention and in particular Articles 2, 3 and 4, and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. To be consistent with this target and to avoid further serious climate change impacts, Annex I countries, as a group, would need to reduce their GHG emissions by more than 40% to 1990 levels by 2020, and more than 95% by 2050. IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentrations to Low Levels, REVISED DRAFT 25/7/2008, Shilpa Rao, Keywan Riahi and Cheolhung Cho (IIASA), Detlef van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, Michel den Elzen, Jasper van Vliet and Morna Isaac (PBL); Report of the First Assessment of Low Stabilisation Scenarios, Postdam Institut for Climate Impact Research, 2008; Stabilizing Green House Gas Concentrations at Low Levels, an Assessment of Reduction Strategies and Costs, Detlef P. van Vuuren & Michel G. J. den Elzen & Paul L. Lucas & Bas Eickhout & Bart J. Strengers & Bas van Ruijven & Steven Wonink & Roy van Houdt, 2007. As a group, non-Annex I countries would need significant deviations from baseline over comparable periods. This will increase the probability of avoiding serious damage and catastrophic climate change impacts upon SIDS. The availability of new and sufficient financial resources separate from the current ODA commitment to vulnerable countries, especially the SIDS and LDCs, to assist them in building their capacities in implementing appropriate mitigation measures. All countries should collaborate in the development, diffusion and transfer of environmentally sound technology for mitigation. All countries, in particular SIDS and LDCs, should have access to environmentally sound technology for mitigation that is adequate and appropriate to their needs. 3. Monitoring and Evaluation This long-term target should be reviewed no later than 2015 and on a regular basis thereafter. Such a review must be informed by the experiences and observations of Parties, the findings of the IPCC-AR5 and other relevant scientific information.
