Statement from the Alliance of Small Islands Developing States (AOSIS)


Ahead of COP30, New NDC Synthesis Report Reveals Dangerous Delay on Global Climate Action

No cause for celebration: The UNFCCC Synthesis Report on new Nationally Determined Contributions shows only 64 countries (30% of global emissions) have submitted, with collective targets falling below what is needed to achieve the 1.5°C global warming target.


New York City, Tuesday 28th October, 2025

Today, the United Nations released the long-awaited NDC Synthesis Report which integrates analysis of countries’ updated targets to address climate change through 2030, and new targets for 2035. The Report confirms that only 64 countries have submitted, with new NDCs missing for 131 countries. AOSIS has consistently advocated for all countries to submit their enhanced NDCs by September 2025, and called for adherence to the ICJ Advisory Opinion which notes the need for high ambition on these NDCs.

AOSIS notes with disappointment:
– The alarming lack of updated targets, especially from bigger countries with significantly more resources than developing countries which bear the disproportionate burden of a climate crisis they did not cause.

– The limited number of submitted NDCs means we have lost the opportunity to receive a clear picture of the true aggregated effects of all NDCs towards the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals.

– Importantly, the Report makes it clear that targets are not measuring up to actions needed to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C. Emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030, yet the Report indicates the world could be severely off track: “With their GHG emissions in 2035 on average estimated to be 17% below their 2019 levels…the scale of the total emissions reduction expected to be achieved by the group of Parties (noting that this is only about 33% of Parties to the Paris Agreement) through implementation of their new NDCs falls short of what is necessary according to IPCC ranges”.

Our hope is bolstered by the indication that global emissions are beginning to bend downward. We are also heartened by the encouraging progress for the ocean, with nearly four out of five NDCs now including ocean-based action, and countries advancing adaptation through coastal resilience, blue carbon restoration, and community based fisheries.

However the overall sluggish progress should send shockwaves through every citizen. AOSIS reiterates our call for countries to be climate leaders, not laggards, and submit NDCs of the highest ambition, urgently. We await the NDC submission of the European Union, noting this bloc’s tremendous potential to take up the mantle of climate leadership and help steer our world back on track.

With the world’s pivotal climate change summit just days away AOSIS is calling for a space at COP30 to consider the lack of mitigation in the NDCs, particularly in this critical decade for keeping 1.5 alive. Additionally, there is a clear need for enhanced and more accessible climate finance to drive implementation if the 1.5°C goal is to be achieved.

At this very moment, people from small island developing states are enduring the devastating effects of an unprecedented hurricane season, knowing they have limited resources to recover and will face an arduous process to access the necessary finance. The current NDCs submissions will not yield the action that is essential to stave off even more devastating impacts.

At COP30, big emitters cannot in good conscience allow this wasteful, vicious cycle to continue. The safety of small island developing states is a right, not a negotiation bargaining chip. The remaining NDCs must be urgently delivered, and include 1.5°C-aligned targets for 2030 and 2035. COP30 must deliver the vital support needed to enable implementation that will finally enhance our prospects of sustainability and survival.